By Jon Schweppe, Senior Advisor, American Principles Project
It is Tuesday, April 14th. We are now 29 weeks away from the midterm elections.
The President’s approval rating is dipping dangerously close to 40 percent, the Mendoza Line for modern presidents.
Republicans in Congress face the same problem. The RealClearPolitics average has Democrats up five points on the generic ballot. If that holds, we lose the House. If it climbs toward double digits, we lose the Senate too. Iowa and Nebraska become toss-ups. Even Texas and Florida come into play.
And as of right now, nothing seems to be arresting the Democrats’ momentum. They’re an irrelevant, minority party with terrible messaging on the issues voters care about, yet they appear to be ascendant, thriving on the chaos and collapse of the GOP’s 2024 coalition.
Something substantive must be done to change this trajectory.
But our Republican trifecta is currently standing pat on a pair of deuces. In poker, that’s a great way to lose money. In politics, that’s how you lose a country.
We have one, maybe two more cracks at passing major legislation that can meaningfully change the political headwinds before November. Our strongest tool is budget reconciliation — the process that lets us bypass the filibuster and pass bold policy with a simple majority.
Earlier this month, I wrote about the possibility of using reconciliation to enact baby bonuses. The precedent is clear: Congress used the same expedited process in the American Rescue Plan to deliver $1,400 direct cash payments to tens of millions of Americans, and in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to deliver the $1,000 seed money into every eligible newborn’s Trump Account. for newborns. A $5,000 baby bonus could be structured exactly the same way — automatic payments triggered by birth certification.
At a time when affordability is a top concern, there’s no question that baby bonuses would be an extremely helpful way to support working families. They’re also popular. A recent Cygnal poll found 65 percent support for a one-time “newborn credit,” which working parents could claim weeks after having a baby.
But we shouldn’t stop there.
Certainly, we should use reconciliation to fund ICE and CBP, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune has proposed. But Thune’s insistence on keeping the bill “narrow” and limited mostly to border funding is a tactical error. Why play small ball when voters gave us unified government and 53 votes in the Senate? They didn’t hand us power so we could tinker at the margins. They want real results. They want real wins.
Stop calling it a “narrow reconciliation bill.” Think bigger. Start calling it the “Delivering Enormous Wins for the American People Act.”
We should load this package with game-changing policies that directly address the cost-of-living crisis, the family formation collapse, energy independence, homeownership, border security, and economic stagnation in Middle America.
We must also use this vehicle to deliver important wins to the core Republican base. Right now, there is serious talk about not defunding Planned Parenthood. I hope it’s not true, but I haven’t seen it refuted — at least publicly.
And if it is true, it’s completely indefensible. Pro-lifers are a core part of the Republican coalition, many of them single-issue voters. They contribute money, they knock on doors, they make phone calls. They show up year in and year out to support Republican candidates. And we’re seriously talking about not defunding Planned Parenthood when we have a trifecta?
Nah, man. That’s loser talk.
The only way out is through. If Republicans lead, the American people will follow. Much of our recent polling drop has come from our own 2024 coalition. The fastest way to win them back is by delivering on what we promised. Democrats are weak and disorganized, yet they’re gaining ground because we’re not giving voters compelling reasons to stay with us.
It’s time to act. Pass a reconciliation bill worthy of the mandate we were given. Stand pat, and we’ll deserve what comes next. Act boldly, and we’ll absolutely turn this thing around.
Let’s get it done.
Originally published on Populist Solutions.
